This six weeks has been tough for me. I have been in and out of school throughout this six weeks due to my injured knee. It has made this six weeks more stressful. I have learned stuff but not as much as i needed to know to help me on future test. Though i am struggling to catch back up on work, i will not give up. In Mr. Detrixhe class i have learned alot, at first i didn't understand what was going on but as time passed by it became more understanding. I needed those couple of class periods to get better view of the lessons that were taught. i see that the rest of the class is ahead of me. Just by missing at least a day of school can get you far behind.
What can help me on next six weeks is, Reviewing it helps you support what you've learned, so you need less time to study before a test. You'll also be ready if you get called on in class or have to take a pop quiz. Managing your time well is an important element of success — especially if you’re a student. If you set priorities that fit your needs and lifestyle, you'll have a better chance of achieving your goals. You can’t do everything at once. Establish the importance of each item. Then set realistic goals that are attainable. All these are ways to help me stay with or ahead and not get behind.
next six weeks will be better because i won't be missing school like i missed in the 3rd six weeks. I will be more focused and take my work more seriously so i can pass next six weeks with a a or a b. I would like to set my goals now so that they can already be in thought. I would also like to do well because its a new year and i new semester. You should start the new year off right in order for you to keep your success alive.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Oregon Ducks win record-setting Rose Bowl 45-38
Greg Beacham, Associated Press
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Kenjon Barner (24) leads the charge as the Oregon Ducks celebrate their first Rose Bowl win since 1917.
The Oregon Ducks had waited 95 years to win another Rose Bowl, and the last few seconds stretched for an eternity. The players in mirrored helmets held each other back on the sideline, waiting on tiptoes for video review to confirm Wisconsin was out of time.
The call went Oregon's way. The Ducks stormed the hallowed field.
The most futuristic team in college football had buried another bit of history, and that revolutionary offense finally has a shiny trophy that will look right at home among those eye-catching uniforms.
Darron Thomas passed for three touchdowns, De'Anthony Thomas scored on runs of 91 and 64 yards, and the sixth-ranked Ducks earned their first bowl victory under head coach Chip Kelly, holding off the Badgers 45-38 Monday in the highest-scoring Rose Bowl ever played.
"We had no doubt this year that we were going to come out and do big things," said Darron Thomas, who passed for 268 yards. "It's a big statement for the Oregon program."
Indeed: The last time Oregon won the Rose Bowl, beating Penn 14-0 in 1917, the players wore leather helmets, not those shiny numbers that exemplify every innovation the Ducks have created during Kelly's three-year tenure.
Oregon (12-2) showed off that creativity with 621 total yards - second most in Rose Bowl history - against the Badgers, playing at its usual frantic pace until the final whistle. Lavasier Tuinei caught eight passes for 158 yards and two TDs for the Ducks.
"None of us were around 95 years ago, and we never talked about it," Kelly said. "We're a forward-thinking operation, and we're always looking ahead."
Maybe so, but it's unlikely anybody from Oregon will forget how this one ended.
With two long passes, Russell Wilson moved the Badgers to the Oregon 25, but with two seconds left and no timeouts.
After waiting for the ball to be set, he spiked it to set up a last-ditch heave to the end zone, but the clock hit zeros while he did it.
The Ducks were winners after video review, holding No. 9 Wisconsin scoreless in the fourth quarter.
Montee Ball rushed for 122 of his 164 yards in the first half for the Badgers (11-3), who lost the Rose Bowl for the second straight year despite managing 508 yards. Ball tied Barry Sanders' FBS record with his 39th touchdown of the season, but the Heisman Trophy finalist was held to three carries for no yards in the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin had two drives to tie it after Oregon kicked a field goal with 6:50 to play, but Jared Abbrederis fumbled near the Oregon sideline after making a long catch. The ball plopped onto the turf without even bouncing, and Oregon's Michael Clay jumped on it with 4:06 left.
That video review went the Ducks' way, too.
LaMichael James rushed for 159 yards and an early TD in his likely college finale for the Ducks, and Kenjon Barner caught a TD pass from Darron Thomas.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
The Oregon Ducks had waited 95 years to win another Rose Bowl, and the last few seconds stretched for an eternity. The players in mirrored helmets held each other back on the sideline, waiting on tiptoes for video review to confirm Wisconsin was out of time.
The call went Oregon's way. The Ducks stormed the hallowed field.
The most futuristic team in college football had buried another bit of history, and that revolutionary offense finally has a shiny trophy that will look right at home among those eye-catching uniforms.
Darron Thomas passed for three touchdowns, De'Anthony Thomas scored on runs of 91 and 64 yards, and the sixth-ranked Ducks earned their first bowl victory under head coach Chip Kelly, holding off the Badgers 45-38 Monday in the highest-scoring Rose Bowl ever played.
"We had no doubt this year that we were going to come out and do big things," said Darron Thomas, who passed for 268 yards. "It's a big statement for the Oregon program."
Indeed: The last time Oregon won the Rose Bowl, beating Penn 14-0 in 1917, the players wore leather helmets, not those shiny numbers that exemplify every innovation the Ducks have created during Kelly's three-year tenure.
Oregon (12-2) showed off that creativity with 621 total yards - second most in Rose Bowl history - against the Badgers, playing at its usual frantic pace until the final whistle. Lavasier Tuinei caught eight passes for 158 yards and two TDs for the Ducks.
"None of us were around 95 years ago, and we never talked about it," Kelly said. "We're a forward-thinking operation, and we're always looking ahead."
Maybe so, but it's unlikely anybody from Oregon will forget how this one ended.
With two long passes, Russell Wilson moved the Badgers to the Oregon 25, but with two seconds left and no timeouts.
After waiting for the ball to be set, he spiked it to set up a last-ditch heave to the end zone, but the clock hit zeros while he did it.
The Ducks were winners after video review, holding No. 9 Wisconsin scoreless in the fourth quarter.
Montee Ball rushed for 122 of his 164 yards in the first half for the Badgers (11-3), who lost the Rose Bowl for the second straight year despite managing 508 yards. Ball tied Barry Sanders' FBS record with his 39th touchdown of the season, but the Heisman Trophy finalist was held to three carries for no yards in the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin had two drives to tie it after Oregon kicked a field goal with 6:50 to play, but Jared Abbrederis fumbled near the Oregon sideline after making a long catch. The ball plopped onto the turf without even bouncing, and Oregon's Michael Clay jumped on it with 4:06 left.
That video review went the Ducks' way, too.
LaMichael James rushed for 159 yards and an early TD in his likely college finale for the Ducks, and Kenjon Barner caught a TD pass from Darron Thomas.
Scout's Eye: Cowboys-Giants review
By Bryan Broaddus
For the Dallas Cowboys, the season ended where it began several months ago -- at MetLife Stadium.
As poorly as Jason Garrett's squad had played this season, it still had a chance to win the NFC East and host a first-round playoff game if it could defeat the New York Giants on a chilly, rainy Sunday night. For the Cowboys, this game was going to come down to two issues: Could they control the Giants' wide receivers from making big plays, and could they block the front seven to allow Tony Romo and his receivers to attack the secondary?
On both fronts, the Cowboys failed, finishing 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
Newman struggles for all to see
Terence Newman's struggles were obvious to anyone who watched the game. Watching Newman, you saw someone who was playing with no confidence whatsoever. His technique was poor, and the harder he tried the worse he played.
Newman's downfall started even before the pass to Victor Cruz out of the slot on third-and-1. With the Giants facing a third-and-9 from their own 5, Eli Manning took the snap and began to scan downfield. Tight end Bear Pascoe delayed his route to help block DeMarcus Ware, then released up the field to the flat. Newman was in a zone drop to the outside and saw that Manning was going to check the ball down to Pascoe in the flat. Newman drove on the route but two yards away from Pascoe ducked his head and then lunged at the Giants tight end. On the same side of the field, Orlando Scandrick was shoved inside and out of position. Pascoe was in the open field with Newman then jumped over the cornerback, who was in no position to make a tackle and prevent a first down.
[+] Enlarge
William Perlman/The Star-Ledger/US Presswire
Victor Cruz was able to shake off Terence Newman before speeding down the sideline for the Giants' first strike.
On the pass rush on Manning, Jason Hatcher got free on a twist stunt but was a step late arriving on a potential sack. Gerald Sensabaugh and Abram Elam drove Pascoe out of bounds after he gained the first down. Two plays later with the Giants facing a third-and-1, Rob Ryan stayed with his base defense. The Giants would spread the Cowboys out. Tight end Travis Beckum was wide right and covered by Elam. Cruz was in the slot to the left side and covered by Newman. Hakeem Nicks was wide left, picked up by Mike Jenkins on the outside. Pascoe stayed on the left side to help block Ware, who was rushing to that side. At the snap, Beckum drove across the formation. Newman was lined up 2 yards off Cruz. Manning looked at Cruz all the way -- the receiver drove up the field at Newman and got him on one leg, then broke hard to the outside. Sensabaugh was in coverage on Pascoe but when he stayed in to block he turned his attention to the outside and started in the direction of Newman and Cruz. Cruz was now four yards up the field as he caught the ball from Manning. Newman and Sensabaugh were both in a trailing position on the outside. Jenkins, like Scandrick, was shoved to the inside by Nicks.
Cruz went up the sideline clear of Newman and Sensabaugh with both in chase. The receiver has too much speed, with the Cowboys unable to run him down as the Giants score the first touchdown of the day.
The Cowboys had fought their way back and were down only seven in the fourth quarter. The Giants had the ball on their own 28 with 9:45 left. Ryan went with the dime package to match the Giants and their three receivers. Scandrick was matched up with Cruz out of the left slot. Sensabaugh was the safety to that side of the field. At the snap, Sensabaugh began to work his way to the middle and was at a depth of 20 yards. The Cowboys used "Man Free" coverage -- man coverage with a single safety in the middle of the field.
Scandrick jumped to the outside, which allowed Cruz a free release to the inside and a vertical path down the field. Sensabaugh read Manning, saw him looking to his right and begins to work that way. On the rush, Jay Ratliff got a nice push up the field but his back was to Manning. Ratliff was unable to get his arms around Manning because he was rushing backward up the field. Manning felt Ratliff and spun to his left, where only Hatcher was rushing. Ratliff, Ware and Spencer were trapped to Manning's right. Hatcher couldn't react quickly enough as Manning fired downfield. Cruz was to the inside of Scandrick, who didn't find the ball until it was already in the receiver's hands. Sensabaugh was late arriving to the play as Cruz caught the ball with Scandrick on his back, killing any momentum that the Cowboys had on defense.
Romo slips up on interception
On offense, the numbers for Tony Romo indicated that he had a productive game, but it might have been one in which he struggled the most with eye level and finding receivers downfield.
One of Romo's strengths is his ability to see routes develop and make those throws to open targets. I really do not believe that Romo's bruised hand was a factor in the way he played, but I do think the rush made him check the ball down more than trying to make those throws downfield.
The one thing that Romo had been able to do is protect the ball and not turn it over with interceptions. In the third quarter with the Giants holding a 21-7 lead, Romo made a mistake when he didn't see safety Antrel Rolle in the middle of the field covering Jason Witten. On the play, Robinson lined up wide left and Austin was in the slot left. Witten was the tight end in line on the left. Romo was in the shotgun, with Felix Jones lined up to his right.
At the snap, Witten chipped on Jason Pierre-Paul as Doug Free fell down. Miles Austin ran the out and Robinson on the slant. Witten sat down in the middle. Romo's eyes were to the right looking at Bryant, who was open at the sticks on the curl. Witten worked back to the outside. Romo was still looking at Bryant but didn't make the throw. He came back to Witten but didn't see Rolle to the tight end's right. Romo fired toward Witten, but Rolle slid in front for the interception.
Cowboys give it one last shot
The Cowboys have struggled the most in protection when teams run twist stunts. In this game, the Giants were able to get two sacks on blitzes that the Eagles ran last week. On their second sack on a third-and-4 the Cowboys used an empty formation, and the Giants countered with man coverage. At the snap, Justin Tuck drove inside on Kyle Kosier to pick off Tyron Smith, who was knocked off his block. Osi Umenyiora came clean around Smith and Kosier was unable to adjust back to the inside to pick up Umenyiora, who lined up for a shot at Romo. Romo wants to throw the ball inside to Witten but has to pull it down and take the sack.
Again, it was a stunt run by the Eagles last week that the Giants studied and they got the same results.
Not all was bad for the Cowboys offensively. With the Giants up 21-7 and 10:32 remaining, the Cowboys drove to the Giants 5 facing a second down. Romo brought the offense to the line with Robinson wide left, Witten slot right with Austin outside of him and Bryant far to the right side. Jones was lined up left to Romo in the gun. In the pre-snap, Romo saw that he was going to get a blitz from his left side and no safety in the middle of the field. Romo walked forward behind Phil Costa and bent down to signal to Robinson to run the slant. At the snap, Robinson ran the perfect slant as Jones picked up the blitz inside, allowing Romo the time he needed to throw a strike to Robinson without any pressure and cutting the Giants' lead to just seven, but that would be the Cowboys' final score of 2011.
For the Dallas Cowboys, the season ended where it began several months ago -- at MetLife Stadium.
As poorly as Jason Garrett's squad had played this season, it still had a chance to win the NFC East and host a first-round playoff game if it could defeat the New York Giants on a chilly, rainy Sunday night. For the Cowboys, this game was going to come down to two issues: Could they control the Giants' wide receivers from making big plays, and could they block the front seven to allow Tony Romo and his receivers to attack the secondary?
On both fronts, the Cowboys failed, finishing 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
Newman struggles for all to see
Terence Newman's struggles were obvious to anyone who watched the game. Watching Newman, you saw someone who was playing with no confidence whatsoever. His technique was poor, and the harder he tried the worse he played.
Newman's downfall started even before the pass to Victor Cruz out of the slot on third-and-1. With the Giants facing a third-and-9 from their own 5, Eli Manning took the snap and began to scan downfield. Tight end Bear Pascoe delayed his route to help block DeMarcus Ware, then released up the field to the flat. Newman was in a zone drop to the outside and saw that Manning was going to check the ball down to Pascoe in the flat. Newman drove on the route but two yards away from Pascoe ducked his head and then lunged at the Giants tight end. On the same side of the field, Orlando Scandrick was shoved inside and out of position. Pascoe was in the open field with Newman then jumped over the cornerback, who was in no position to make a tackle and prevent a first down.
[+] Enlarge
William Perlman/The Star-Ledger/US Presswire
Victor Cruz was able to shake off Terence Newman before speeding down the sideline for the Giants' first strike.
On the pass rush on Manning, Jason Hatcher got free on a twist stunt but was a step late arriving on a potential sack. Gerald Sensabaugh and Abram Elam drove Pascoe out of bounds after he gained the first down. Two plays later with the Giants facing a third-and-1, Rob Ryan stayed with his base defense. The Giants would spread the Cowboys out. Tight end Travis Beckum was wide right and covered by Elam. Cruz was in the slot to the left side and covered by Newman. Hakeem Nicks was wide left, picked up by Mike Jenkins on the outside. Pascoe stayed on the left side to help block Ware, who was rushing to that side. At the snap, Beckum drove across the formation. Newman was lined up 2 yards off Cruz. Manning looked at Cruz all the way -- the receiver drove up the field at Newman and got him on one leg, then broke hard to the outside. Sensabaugh was in coverage on Pascoe but when he stayed in to block he turned his attention to the outside and started in the direction of Newman and Cruz. Cruz was now four yards up the field as he caught the ball from Manning. Newman and Sensabaugh were both in a trailing position on the outside. Jenkins, like Scandrick, was shoved to the inside by Nicks.
Cruz went up the sideline clear of Newman and Sensabaugh with both in chase. The receiver has too much speed, with the Cowboys unable to run him down as the Giants score the first touchdown of the day.
The Cowboys had fought their way back and were down only seven in the fourth quarter. The Giants had the ball on their own 28 with 9:45 left. Ryan went with the dime package to match the Giants and their three receivers. Scandrick was matched up with Cruz out of the left slot. Sensabaugh was the safety to that side of the field. At the snap, Sensabaugh began to work his way to the middle and was at a depth of 20 yards. The Cowboys used "Man Free" coverage -- man coverage with a single safety in the middle of the field.
Scandrick jumped to the outside, which allowed Cruz a free release to the inside and a vertical path down the field. Sensabaugh read Manning, saw him looking to his right and begins to work that way. On the rush, Jay Ratliff got a nice push up the field but his back was to Manning. Ratliff was unable to get his arms around Manning because he was rushing backward up the field. Manning felt Ratliff and spun to his left, where only Hatcher was rushing. Ratliff, Ware and Spencer were trapped to Manning's right. Hatcher couldn't react quickly enough as Manning fired downfield. Cruz was to the inside of Scandrick, who didn't find the ball until it was already in the receiver's hands. Sensabaugh was late arriving to the play as Cruz caught the ball with Scandrick on his back, killing any momentum that the Cowboys had on defense.
Romo slips up on interception
On offense, the numbers for Tony Romo indicated that he had a productive game, but it might have been one in which he struggled the most with eye level and finding receivers downfield.
One of Romo's strengths is his ability to see routes develop and make those throws to open targets. I really do not believe that Romo's bruised hand was a factor in the way he played, but I do think the rush made him check the ball down more than trying to make those throws downfield.
The one thing that Romo had been able to do is protect the ball and not turn it over with interceptions. In the third quarter with the Giants holding a 21-7 lead, Romo made a mistake when he didn't see safety Antrel Rolle in the middle of the field covering Jason Witten. On the play, Robinson lined up wide left and Austin was in the slot left. Witten was the tight end in line on the left. Romo was in the shotgun, with Felix Jones lined up to his right.
At the snap, Witten chipped on Jason Pierre-Paul as Doug Free fell down. Miles Austin ran the out and Robinson on the slant. Witten sat down in the middle. Romo's eyes were to the right looking at Bryant, who was open at the sticks on the curl. Witten worked back to the outside. Romo was still looking at Bryant but didn't make the throw. He came back to Witten but didn't see Rolle to the tight end's right. Romo fired toward Witten, but Rolle slid in front for the interception.
Cowboys give it one last shot
The Cowboys have struggled the most in protection when teams run twist stunts. In this game, the Giants were able to get two sacks on blitzes that the Eagles ran last week. On their second sack on a third-and-4 the Cowboys used an empty formation, and the Giants countered with man coverage. At the snap, Justin Tuck drove inside on Kyle Kosier to pick off Tyron Smith, who was knocked off his block. Osi Umenyiora came clean around Smith and Kosier was unable to adjust back to the inside to pick up Umenyiora, who lined up for a shot at Romo. Romo wants to throw the ball inside to Witten but has to pull it down and take the sack.
Again, it was a stunt run by the Eagles last week that the Giants studied and they got the same results.
Not all was bad for the Cowboys offensively. With the Giants up 21-7 and 10:32 remaining, the Cowboys drove to the Giants 5 facing a second down. Romo brought the offense to the line with Robinson wide left, Witten slot right with Austin outside of him and Bryant far to the right side. Jones was lined up left to Romo in the gun. In the pre-snap, Romo saw that he was going to get a blitz from his left side and no safety in the middle of the field. Romo walked forward behind Phil Costa and bent down to signal to Robinson to run the slant. At the snap, Robinson ran the perfect slant as Jones picked up the blitz inside, allowing Romo the time he needed to throw a strike to Robinson without any pressure and cutting the Giants' lead to just seven, but that would be the Cowboys' final score of 2011.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
US Economy Ends Tough 2011 on a Upswing
(WASHINGTON) — The economy is ending 2011 on a roll.
The job market is healthier. Americans are spending lustily on holiday gifts. A long-awaited turnaround for the depressed housing industry may be under way. Gas is cheaper. Factories are busier. Stocks are higher.
Not bad for an economy faced with a debt crisis in Europe and, as recently as last summer, scattered predictions of a second recession at home. Instead, the economy has grown faster each quarter this year, and the last three months should be the best.
"Things are looking up," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
When The Associated Press surveyed 43 economists in August, they pegged the likelihood of another recession at roughly one in four. The Dow Jones industrial average was lurching up or down by 400 points or more some days.
(Read "Can the U.S. Recovery Continue Without Europe?")
There was plenty of reason for gloom. A political standoff over the federal borrowing limit brought the United States to the brink of default and cost the nation its top-drawer credit rating.
Most analysts now rule out another recession. They think the economy will grow at an annual rate of more than 3 percent from October through December, the fastest pace since a 3.8 percent performance in the spring of last year.
Many economists still worry that the year-end surge isn't sustainable, in part because the average worker's pay is barely rising. And Europe may already be sliding into a recession that will infect the United States.
The outlook could darken further if Congress can't break the impasse blocking an extension of a Social Security tax cut for 160 million Americans and emergency unemployment benefits.
Yet for now, the economy is on an upswing that few had predicted:
— JOBS: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits came in at 366,000 last week, down from a peak of 659,000 in March 2009. Even in good economic times, the figure would be between 280,000 and 350,000.
Employers have added at least 100,000 jobs five months in a row, the longest streak since 2006. And the unemployment rate fell from 9 percent in October to 8.6 percent last month, the lowest since March 2009.
(See the top 10 business blunders of 2011.)
Small businesses are hiring again, too, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
Business is up at AG Salesworks in Norwood, Mass., which helps technology companies like Motorola find new customers. The firm has hired 26 workers to restore its staff to 56, erasing the job cuts from the recession. CEO Paul Alves plans to add an employee or two a month as long as growth continues.
"I do see more confidence than I saw 12 months ago," Alves says. "But it's good, not great. Robust isn't the word I'd use."
— SPENDING: The holiday shopping season has turned out better than anyone expected. Sales from November through Saturday were up 2.5 percent from last year. Americans have spent $32 billion online, 15 percent more than a year ago. Retails sales were up in November for the sixth month in a row. People are spending, in particular, on clothes, cars, electronics and furniture.
— CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: Americans felt better about the economy in November than they had since July, according to the Conference Board, a business group that tracks the mood of consumers.
The board's consumer confidence index climbed 15 points to 56 in November, the biggest one-month jump since April 2003. During the Great Recession, the index fell as low as 25.
"It seems like the confidence of the traditional American consumer is higher right now," says Jim Newman, executive vice president of operations at the digital marketing company Acquity Group, which has added 100 jobs since summer.
— GAS: Falling prices at the pump have freed more money for consumers to spend on appliances, furniture, vacations and other things that help drive the economy. The national average for regular unleaded has sunk to $3.21 a gallon since peaking at $3.98 in May, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge.
— INVENTORIES: Businesses are restocking shelves and warehouses, more confident that customers will buy their products. In October, their inventories were up 8.7 percent from a year earlier. An increase in inventories is expected to account for perhaps a third of growth this quarter.
(See photos of the recession of 1958.)
The battered housing market might be showing signs of recovery. Home construction rose more than 9 percent in November from October, driven by apartment building. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that sales of previously occupied homes rose 4 percent in November.
But housing is climbing out of a deep hole: The existing homes sold at an annual rate of 4.4 million — well below the 6 million that would signal a healthy housing market. And the real-estate agents' trade group revealed Wednesday that it overstated sales by 3.5 million during and after the Great Recession.
Once they peer into 2012, economists turn cautious. Bernard Baumohl, chief economist with the Economic Outlook Group, says that stronger consumer spending "is absolutely unsustainable. .... Wages have not kept pace with inflation all year."
The government says that once you adjust for inflation, weekly earnings dropped 1.8 percent from November 2010 to last month. Consumers have used savings or credit cards to finance their purchases. Once bills come due in early 2012, Baumohl foresees a cutback in spending.
Baumohl is so pessimistic that he expects the economy to shrink at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of 2012 and to end the year with no more than 1.8 percent growth.
Europe is almost sure to slide into recession, even if its policymakers find a solution to the continent's debt crisis. In the worst case, a chaotic breakup of the euro currency could ignite a worldwide financial panic.
Joe Echevarria, CEO of the accounting and consulting firm Deloitte LLP, says his company's clients are delaying hiring or expansion decisions to see if Europe's crisis will be resolved.
Another worry — again — is Washington. President Barack Obama and Republicans in Congress still had not broken their impasse Wednesday on how to extend a Social Security tax cut. Without an extension, taxes will go up $1,000 in 2012 for someone making $50,000. A couple making $100,000 each would pay $4,000 more.
Failing to extend the tax cut, combined with the end of long-term unemployment benefits and other federal budget cuts, could shave 1.7 percentage points from growth in 2012, warns Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
Forecasters are also chastened by the past two years. Since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy has stalled twice just when it appeared to be gaining momentum.
In mid-2010, businesses slowed spending sharply. This year, the damage came from protests in the Middle East that drove oil prices higher at the start of the year, the earthquake in Japan in March, budget cuts by state and local governments and the stalemate in Washington.
But Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors says he thinks the fears about next year are overblown and the economy will grow 3 percent in 2012. Next year will be all about jobs. If job growth keeps accelerating, the economy is much more likely to meet Naroff's predictions than the pessimists'.
In addition, Naroff says, that's because consumers and businesses have grown more confident. If Europe averts disaster — a crackup of the eurozone — and endures only a mild recession, as Naroff expects, the impact on the United States will be minimal, he says.
"If you stopped the average person on the street and asked, 'Are you slowing your spending because of what's happening in Europe?' they'd ask, 'What planet are you from?'"
AP Business Writer Christopher Leonard in St. Louis contributed to this report.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2102964,00.html#ixzz1hHiGdQVI
The job market is healthier. Americans are spending lustily on holiday gifts. A long-awaited turnaround for the depressed housing industry may be under way. Gas is cheaper. Factories are busier. Stocks are higher.
Not bad for an economy faced with a debt crisis in Europe and, as recently as last summer, scattered predictions of a second recession at home. Instead, the economy has grown faster each quarter this year, and the last three months should be the best.
"Things are looking up," says Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
When The Associated Press surveyed 43 economists in August, they pegged the likelihood of another recession at roughly one in four. The Dow Jones industrial average was lurching up or down by 400 points or more some days.
(Read "Can the U.S. Recovery Continue Without Europe?")
There was plenty of reason for gloom. A political standoff over the federal borrowing limit brought the United States to the brink of default and cost the nation its top-drawer credit rating.
Most analysts now rule out another recession. They think the economy will grow at an annual rate of more than 3 percent from October through December, the fastest pace since a 3.8 percent performance in the spring of last year.
Many economists still worry that the year-end surge isn't sustainable, in part because the average worker's pay is barely rising. And Europe may already be sliding into a recession that will infect the United States.
The outlook could darken further if Congress can't break the impasse blocking an extension of a Social Security tax cut for 160 million Americans and emergency unemployment benefits.
Yet for now, the economy is on an upswing that few had predicted:
— JOBS: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits came in at 366,000 last week, down from a peak of 659,000 in March 2009. Even in good economic times, the figure would be between 280,000 and 350,000.
Employers have added at least 100,000 jobs five months in a row, the longest streak since 2006. And the unemployment rate fell from 9 percent in October to 8.6 percent last month, the lowest since March 2009.
(See the top 10 business blunders of 2011.)
Small businesses are hiring again, too, according to the National Federation of Independent Business.
Business is up at AG Salesworks in Norwood, Mass., which helps technology companies like Motorola find new customers. The firm has hired 26 workers to restore its staff to 56, erasing the job cuts from the recession. CEO Paul Alves plans to add an employee or two a month as long as growth continues.
"I do see more confidence than I saw 12 months ago," Alves says. "But it's good, not great. Robust isn't the word I'd use."
— SPENDING: The holiday shopping season has turned out better than anyone expected. Sales from November through Saturday were up 2.5 percent from last year. Americans have spent $32 billion online, 15 percent more than a year ago. Retails sales were up in November for the sixth month in a row. People are spending, in particular, on clothes, cars, electronics and furniture.
— CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: Americans felt better about the economy in November than they had since July, according to the Conference Board, a business group that tracks the mood of consumers.
The board's consumer confidence index climbed 15 points to 56 in November, the biggest one-month jump since April 2003. During the Great Recession, the index fell as low as 25.
"It seems like the confidence of the traditional American consumer is higher right now," says Jim Newman, executive vice president of operations at the digital marketing company Acquity Group, which has added 100 jobs since summer.
— GAS: Falling prices at the pump have freed more money for consumers to spend on appliances, furniture, vacations and other things that help drive the economy. The national average for regular unleaded has sunk to $3.21 a gallon since peaking at $3.98 in May, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge.
— INVENTORIES: Businesses are restocking shelves and warehouses, more confident that customers will buy their products. In October, their inventories were up 8.7 percent from a year earlier. An increase in inventories is expected to account for perhaps a third of growth this quarter.
(See photos of the recession of 1958.)
The battered housing market might be showing signs of recovery. Home construction rose more than 9 percent in November from October, driven by apartment building. And the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that sales of previously occupied homes rose 4 percent in November.
But housing is climbing out of a deep hole: The existing homes sold at an annual rate of 4.4 million — well below the 6 million that would signal a healthy housing market. And the real-estate agents' trade group revealed Wednesday that it overstated sales by 3.5 million during and after the Great Recession.
Once they peer into 2012, economists turn cautious. Bernard Baumohl, chief economist with the Economic Outlook Group, says that stronger consumer spending "is absolutely unsustainable. .... Wages have not kept pace with inflation all year."
The government says that once you adjust for inflation, weekly earnings dropped 1.8 percent from November 2010 to last month. Consumers have used savings or credit cards to finance their purchases. Once bills come due in early 2012, Baumohl foresees a cutback in spending.
Baumohl is so pessimistic that he expects the economy to shrink at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of 2012 and to end the year with no more than 1.8 percent growth.
Europe is almost sure to slide into recession, even if its policymakers find a solution to the continent's debt crisis. In the worst case, a chaotic breakup of the euro currency could ignite a worldwide financial panic.
Joe Echevarria, CEO of the accounting and consulting firm Deloitte LLP, says his company's clients are delaying hiring or expansion decisions to see if Europe's crisis will be resolved.
Another worry — again — is Washington. President Barack Obama and Republicans in Congress still had not broken their impasse Wednesday on how to extend a Social Security tax cut. Without an extension, taxes will go up $1,000 in 2012 for someone making $50,000. A couple making $100,000 each would pay $4,000 more.
Failing to extend the tax cut, combined with the end of long-term unemployment benefits and other federal budget cuts, could shave 1.7 percentage points from growth in 2012, warns Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
Forecasters are also chastened by the past two years. Since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy has stalled twice just when it appeared to be gaining momentum.
In mid-2010, businesses slowed spending sharply. This year, the damage came from protests in the Middle East that drove oil prices higher at the start of the year, the earthquake in Japan in March, budget cuts by state and local governments and the stalemate in Washington.
But Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors says he thinks the fears about next year are overblown and the economy will grow 3 percent in 2012. Next year will be all about jobs. If job growth keeps accelerating, the economy is much more likely to meet Naroff's predictions than the pessimists'.
In addition, Naroff says, that's because consumers and businesses have grown more confident. If Europe averts disaster — a crackup of the eurozone — and endures only a mild recession, as Naroff expects, the impact on the United States will be minimal, he says.
"If you stopped the average person on the street and asked, 'Are you slowing your spending because of what's happening in Europe?' they'd ask, 'What planet are you from?'"
AP Business Writer Christopher Leonard in St. Louis contributed to this report.
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,2102964,00.html#ixzz1hHiGdQVI
Baghdad bombings leave at least 60 dead, nearly 200 injured
REPORTING FROM BAGHDAD AND BEIRUT -- A string of explosions ripped through the Iraqi capital on Thursday, killing at least 60 people and injuring nearly 200 just days after the last U.S. troops left the country, police and health officials said.
The attacks came in the midst of a political standoff between the country’s main Shiite and Sunni Muslim factions, heightening fears of a return to the sectarian bloodletting that devastated the country a few years ago.
in different parts of Baghdad in a seemingly coordinated assault during the morning rush hour. Most of the targeted neighborhoods were predominantly Shiite, but some Sunni areas were also hit.
In the deadliest attack, a suicide bomber detonated an ambulance packed with explosives in front of a government anti-corruption office in the Karada neighborhood, shattering windows and setting cars ablaze. A police officer at the scene said at least 16 people were killed and 45 injured.
Iraq’s health ministry put the morning’s death toll at 60 and said at least 180 people were injured. But unofficial tallies collected by news services from police and health officials suggested that the number of casualties was higher.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility. But the seemingly coordinated attacks bore the hallmarks of Sunni insurgents linked to Al Qaeda, who regularly target Shiites and have previously sought to capitalize on political tension to ignite sectarian strife.
Iraq’s leaders were quick to link the attacks to the political crisis. In a statement, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki said the timing and locations of the bombings confirmed “the political nature” of the attacks.
This week, Maliki's Shiite-led government accused Sunni Vice President Tariq Hashimi of running a death squad that targeted government officials during the height of the sectarian fighting. An arrest warrant was issued and videotaped confessions were broadcast on state television from three of Hashimi’s bodyguards who said they had been ordered to commit murders.
Hashimi angrily refuted the claims at a news conference Tuesday, saying he was ready to stand trial but only in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, where he has sought refuge. Maliki demanded that the Kurdish authorities hand over Hashimi to face terrorism charges in Baghdad.
The warrant for Hashimi's arrest was announced the day after the last U.S. troops left Iraq, heightening suspicions among many in the Sunni minority that Maliki is trying to sideline their representatives in the country’s power-sharing government and consolidate his authority by arresting and intimidating rivals.
Maliki asked the Iraqi parliament on Sunday to issue a vote of no confidence in his Sunni deputy, Saleh Mutlaq, who had compared the prime minister to a dictator.
The Iraqiya coalition -- a large political bloc that is led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, and includes Hashimi and Mutlaq as members -- began boycotting parliament on Saturday.
The attacks came in the midst of a political standoff between the country’s main Shiite and Sunni Muslim factions, heightening fears of a return to the sectarian bloodletting that devastated the country a few years ago.
in different parts of Baghdad in a seemingly coordinated assault during the morning rush hour. Most of the targeted neighborhoods were predominantly Shiite, but some Sunni areas were also hit.
In the deadliest attack, a suicide bomber detonated an ambulance packed with explosives in front of a government anti-corruption office in the Karada neighborhood, shattering windows and setting cars ablaze. A police officer at the scene said at least 16 people were killed and 45 injured.
Iraq’s health ministry put the morning’s death toll at 60 and said at least 180 people were injured. But unofficial tallies collected by news services from police and health officials suggested that the number of casualties was higher.
There was no immediate claim of responsibility. But the seemingly coordinated attacks bore the hallmarks of Sunni insurgents linked to Al Qaeda, who regularly target Shiites and have previously sought to capitalize on political tension to ignite sectarian strife.
Iraq’s leaders were quick to link the attacks to the political crisis. In a statement, Prime Minister Nouri Maliki said the timing and locations of the bombings confirmed “the political nature” of the attacks.
This week, Maliki's Shiite-led government accused Sunni Vice President Tariq Hashimi of running a death squad that targeted government officials during the height of the sectarian fighting. An arrest warrant was issued and videotaped confessions were broadcast on state television from three of Hashimi’s bodyguards who said they had been ordered to commit murders.
Hashimi angrily refuted the claims at a news conference Tuesday, saying he was ready to stand trial but only in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq, where he has sought refuge. Maliki demanded that the Kurdish authorities hand over Hashimi to face terrorism charges in Baghdad.
The warrant for Hashimi's arrest was announced the day after the last U.S. troops left Iraq, heightening suspicions among many in the Sunni minority that Maliki is trying to sideline their representatives in the country’s power-sharing government and consolidate his authority by arresting and intimidating rivals.
Maliki asked the Iraqi parliament on Sunday to issue a vote of no confidence in his Sunni deputy, Saleh Mutlaq, who had compared the prime minister to a dictator.
The Iraqiya coalition -- a large political bloc that is led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite, and includes Hashimi and Mutlaq as members -- began boycotting parliament on Saturday.
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